The First Debate

If you missed it, cspanjunkie.org has uploaded it to youtube in segments and collected them all in this post. CNN has the full transcript. UPDATE: CSPAN has uploaded the complete debate to youtube.

Here is one of the more memorable salvos that Obama delivered.

In general, the quick polls and focus groups identify Obama as the winner though the punditry splits on the point. Steve Benen has a round-up of the polls and focus groups and how they viewed the debate results.

The Obama campaign chose this excerpt from the debate for the first post-debate ad which is already out.

ZERO

It certainly draws a focus to the point Nate Silver made in his analysis of the polling and the pundits at TNR.

My other annoyance with the punditry is that they seem to weight all segments of the debate equally. There were eight segments in this debate: bailout, economy, spending, Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, Russia, terrorism. The pundit consensus seems to be that Obama won the segments on the bailout, the economy, and Iraq, drew the segment on Afghanistan, and lost the other four. So, McCain wins 4-3, right? Except that, voters don't weight these issues anywhere near evenly. In Peter Hart's recent poll for NBC, 43 percent of voters listed the economy or the financial crisis as their top priority, 12 percent as Iraq, and 13 percent terrorism or other foreign policy issues. What happens if we give Obama two out of three economic voters (corresponding to the fact that he won two out of the three segments on the economy), and the Iraq voters, but give McCain all the "other foreign policy" voters?

  Issue        Priority      Obama     McCain
Economy         43    -->    29        14
Iraq            12    -->    12         0
Foreign Policy  13    -->     0        13
 ==========================================
Total                        41        27

By this measure, Obama "won" by 14 points, which almost exactly his margin in the CNN poll.

McCain's essential problem is that his fundamental strength - his experience -- is specifically not viewed by voters as carrying over to the economy. And the economy is pretty much all that voters care about these days.

EDIT: The CBS poll of undecideds has more confirmatory detail. Obama went from a +18 on "understanding your needs and problems" before the debate to a +56 (!) afterward. And he went from a -9 on "prepared to be president" to a +21.

Nate's analysis underscores why the viewer polls all clearly give Obama the win for the evening.

From the foreign policy perspective, Fred Kaplan of Slate declares "Judged on the substantive issues, especially on which candidate has the more realistic view of the world, Obama won hands down." Joe Biden certainly delivered that message as well in his appearance on CNN.

As an aside, Wolf Blitzer was finally forced to respond to emails and comments on why the Republican VP candidate was not interviewed by saying that they would have been more than happy to interview Sarah Palin if she had been available. It seems she was being booed (video) on the streets of Philly before the debate began. [via WGRZ]

Back to Joe though. He was in fine form last night.

Yes, Joe. Obama certainly did well.

And McCain didn't help himself with his refusal to look at Obama, his obvious looks of annoyance and anger, and his moments of foreign policy brilliance like this one ... comparing the height of North Koreans to South Koreans. Really.

What on earth was that about? McCain was stuck in history, inarticulate at many points, an angry old man and it showed.

Obama was a little stiff in the beginning but came out with a strong opening statement, concisely made, and once he got going, he was on. He demonstrated skills on multiple levels, how he deals with a cantankerous opponent, his concern for the middle class, his grasp of economic realities, his strategic view of the US's role in the world, his awareness of the need to balance multiple roles/needs of the US including economic, environmental and diplomatic requirements. He did well.